Expected Developments
Future Orientation of the Group
We do not plan on making any fundamental changes to the
Group’s strategy or organizational structure in the next
two years. The focus on specialty markets and the offer of
innovative chemical solutions will continue to drive our
business development.
We do not expect our entry into new market segments
or application areas to lead to any significant changes in
our sales structure in the medium term. We also expect the
balanced regional sales distribution to basically remain
stable.
Acquisitions, however, could lead to changes in our sales
and market structures. Bolt-on acquisitions and particu-
larly the integration of a new business division could result in
a shift.
Economic and Industry Outlook
The world economy is expected to continue to grow at a high
level in 2018. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) fore-
casts an increase of 3.9 % in world economic output, slightly
higher than the 2017 level (3.7 %).
This development should be driven primarily by stron-
ger growth momentum in the emerging countries, especially
by the economies in Latin America, the Middle East, and
Africa. The highest momentum is again forecast for the emerging
Asian economies. The IMF estimates that the growth
rates in China and India will remain very high (6.6 % and
7.4 %, respectively) and thus to have a positive influence
on global growth.
Increased growth is forecast for the U.S. (2.7 % in 2018
compared to 2.3 % in 2017). The IMF expects that following
the recession Brazil will experience a sustained upswing
(growth of 1.9 % after 1.1 % in 2017). In Europe, the
stable development of economic output is expected to basi-
cally continue in 2018, with growth of 2.2 %, though
at a slightly lower level than in the past fiscal year (2.4 %).
Against the background of the global economic
outlook, we expect the general chemical sector in 2018 to
achieve slightly higher growth than in the previous year.
The American Chemistry Council (ACC) forecasts that worldwide
chemical production will increase by 3.2 % in 2018,
after an expected 2.5 % last year. This growth will be driven
by the chemical industry in the emerging countries and in
the established economic nations.
We assume that in this market environment general
demand on the markets relevant for ALTANA will basically be
positive, although the regions will show different develop-
ments. The extent to which changes in storage levels along
the value chain will influence the actual demand for the
products of our divisions largely depends on the expected
short- to medium-term development. Stock-level changes
can lead to significant effects.
The development of crude-oil prices cannot be predicted
reliably. We expect that the price-level increase that began
in 2017 will continue in the coming years. The availability,
pricing, and consumption volume of chemical products
are subject to the influence of the crude-oil market, albeit to
different extents. In addition, the expectations of market
participants in terms of the future development of oil prices
can result in significant changes in the level of storage
along the value chain in the chemical industry.
As in the previous years, the exchange-rate relations
important for ALTANA may continue to show pronounced
volatilities in 2018. The development of regional interest
rates and economic output, as well as political influences, can
be of decisive importance for exchange-rate fluctuations.
Since the intensity and direction of the exchange rates cannot
be predicted, it is not possible to make concrete statements
about the influence.
68 Expected Developments