Group Management Report Products Safety and Health Environment Human Resources Social Commitment Consolidated Financial Statements 71
Expected Developments
Future Orientation of the Group
We do not plan on making any fundamental changes to the
Group’s strategy or organizational structure in the next
two years. The focus on specialty markets and the offer of
innovative chemical solutions will continue to drive our
business development.
We do not expect our entry into new market segments
or application areas to lead to any significant changes in
our sales structure in the medium term. We also expect the
balanced regional sales distribution to basically remain
stable.
Acquisitions, however, could lead to changes in our sales
and market structures. Bolt-on acquisitions and particu-
larly the integration of a new business division could result in
a shift.
Economic and Industry Outlook
Global economic growth is expected to weaken slightly in
2019. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a decrease
of 3.5 % in world economic output. As a result, the
growth would be below the level expected for 2018 (3.7 %).
This development should be driven primarily by the
industrial nations. The IMF expects a slight slowdown
in growth for the U.S. (from + 2.9 % in 2018 to + 2.5 % in
2019) and also for the Eurozone (from + 1.8 % in 2018
to + 1.6 % in 2019). This decline will mainly be driven by the
growing uncertainty regarding geopolitical risks, which
could lead to restrictions on economic trade relations. A decline
in private-sector demand is anticipated in important
industrial countries, including Germany.
According to IMF forecasts, growth in the emerging
countries should be on a par with 2018, at 4.5 %, and thus
surpass the expected growth of the industrial economies
(+ 2.0 %). This development should be driven particularly by
economies in Asia, primarily China (+ 6.2 %) and India
(+ 7.5 %). Growth in Latin America is expected to increase
vis-à-vis 2018, to 2.0 %, which, however, would be at a
lower level than the emerging economies in Asia.
Against the background of the global economic outlook,
we expect the growth in the general chemical sector to
be at the level of the previous year. The American Chemistry
Council (ACC) forecasts that worldwide chemical produc-
tion will increase by 3.0 %, after an expected 2.8 % in the
past fiscal year. This growth should be driven mainly by
the chemical industry in North and Latin America. But chemical
production is also expected to show a positive development
in Europe and Asia.
On the basis of the economic and industry-specific
framework conditions, we assume that the general demand
on all of the markets relevant for ALTANA will basically be
positive, although there will be regional and market-specific
differences. The extent to which changes in storage levels
along the value chain will influence the actual demand for the
products of our divisions largely depends on the expected
short- to medium-term development. Stock-level changes can
lead to significant effects.
The development of crude-oil prices cannot be predicted
reliably. We expect that in 2019 there will be no significant
price movements. The availability, pricing, and consumption
volume of chemical products are subject to the
influence of the crude-oil market, albeit to different extents.
In addition, the expectations of market participants in
terms of the future development of oil prices can result in significant
changes in the level of storage along the entire
value chain of the chemical industry.
As in the previous years, the exchange-rate relations
important for ALTANA may continue to show pronounced
volatilities. The development of regional interest rates and
economic output, as well as political influences, can be of
decisive importance for exchange-rate fluctuations. Since
the intensity and direction of the exchange rates cannot be